Daily Bulletin

Join a seminar about S2S forecast skill—refreshments served for in-person guests

March 16, 2026

On Thursday, March 26, at 2:00 pm MT, join the Mesoscale and Microscale Meteorology Laboratory (MMM) at NSF NCAR for a presentation on subseasonal-to-seasonal (S2S) prediction. The talk is entitled "From Source To Skill: State-Dependent Predictability In Subseasonal-to-Seasonal Forecasts.” 

In this talk, Dr. Judith Berner will discuss how forecast skill in two NSF NCAR models (CESM2 and MPAS-A) depends on land and ocean states, not just atmospheric initial conditions. She will also assess if AI systems can capture this state-dependent predictability. Findings indicate land initialization is the main predictability source after the third week of a forecast.

The event is hybrid and will be held at the NCAR-Foothills Laboratory at 3450 Mitchell Lane, room FL2-1022 (the Large Auditorium). Refreshments will be served at 1:45 p.m. MT, followed by an informal discussion from 3:00 p.m. to 3:30 p.m. MT. Remote participants may watch the live webcast and submit questions via Slido.

For more information, see the event web page, the event flyer, or the abstract.

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This material is based upon work supported by the National Center for Atmospheric Research, a major facility sponsored by National Science Foundation and managed by the University Corporation for Atmospheric Research. Any opinions, findings and conclusions or recommendations expressed in this material do not necessarily reflect the views of the National Science Foundation.